The tragic murder of 17-year-old Trayvon Martin has gone global, with several cities and thousands of people in the streets and online donning hoodies in protest.
There is, however, a potential political setback that I am stunned officials in Florida have failed to appreciate. Of course, this could also be a chilling sign that the dismissal of incidents such as this indicate a norm that lead state and local officials to think they were immune to a backlash.
When it was evident that the Trayvon Martin murder would not go away quietly, it may have appeared to officials and Governor Jeb Bush that the "smart" thing to do would be to stay quiet. However, one would think that some political strategy foresight would suggest the squashing of this incident immediately. There was--and still is--legal recourse to put George Zimmerman in jail, even if only for a short time. It is too late for an arrest to diffuse the outrage, but it could put a dent in it. However, had an arrest been done at the time, we would have never heard about the death of Trayvon Martin.
Let's face it: the Republicans could be in serious trouble this election. There is argument that the strong dislike towards the sitting president will be enough to send the base to the polls, but with three candidates that are splitting the vote and the support, the force is leaning in Obama's favor. Last election, seasoned politician Senator John McCain and running mate Sarah Palin couldn't bring out the vote enough to get the White House. Sarah Palin, whatever your feelings about her, is a charismatic entity for the GOP base. What chance does Mitt Romney or Santorum have? The GOP is merely tolerating Romney's existence. Santorum looks so stressed from just campaigning that it is questionable if his stamina will make it to November. The Republican Party is facing the growing rage stemming from the backlash regarding anti-contraceptive and abortion laws. They don't need this. One thing the GOP had in their favor was the disenchanted base of the Democratic Party not showing up to vote.
If the Democrats were thinking strategically, they would urge Florida Democrats to push to put the repeal of the "Stand Your Ground" law on the ballot to use the anger over Martin's death to get voters to the polls.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Playing a highly volatile voting group
A thought occurred to me as I read about this continued legislative hailstorm regarding women that is making the government anything but small: I wonder if this is just another political game. That is a "duh" statement. Of COURSE it is a political game. Didn't anyone notice these laws are popping up around election season? That was sarcasm in case you missed it.
True, there may be one or two politicians that actually believe in what they are pushing, and some are undoubtedly bandwagoning, but surely they are familiar enough with how this country's legal system works to know that their law will fail at the SCOTUS level. And that's the idea, isn't it? To placate far right voters enough to get them to the polls, and then let SCOTUS knock the laws down. Major players in the GOP have been promising to overturn Roe v. Wade for years and never done so. Why? Because they don't have that authority, and even if they did, why would they? All they have to do is just say the word "abortion" and their base is fired up. If abortion was illegal in this country, their greatest pitch would be lost. At the end of the day, the objective of any politician--Democrat or Republican--is to be reelected.
A backlash is on the horizon from all these laws, and I'm sure the legislators pushing these laws know exactly what they are doing. They know their followers will never accept that the system of Checks and Balances cannot be overturned in Congress or by electing a new president. If you don't believe me, find a hardcore pro-lifer and just ask them. I personally don't think of them as pro-life, they are something else entirely. One too many experiences with the highly hostile natures of people I've met from this demographic have been a life lesson. Even what appears to be simple conversation on non-related topics goes from "Hey, this person is nice" to "I hope my pepper spray is in my purse because this person is scaring the hell out of me."
An answer I gave to someone's commentary that I honestly thought was harmless about how my voting decisions would not affect Roe v Wade because of how the country was set up went from civil to frightening in seconds. A completely illogical and frightening tirade was written to me. He was offended by my civics lesson and the next thing I knew, I got an email with abortion "info" that was 30 years old and possessed not one verifiable source. Just from mentioning Checks and Balances. He was the one that brought up abortion. That wasn't even on my mind. My motivation for voting was the economy, and if people like him weren't so trigger-happy and clung so tightly to erroneous information, they would see that abortion rates drop when they economy is good. So someone that is thinking about the economy isn't "the enemy". But nothing will even get them to change the topic. No research is valid to them unless it comes from the unvalidated website that tells them exactly what they want to hear. You either are a monster or in need of reeducation in their eyes. They will keep talking as if you didn't say a word and will keep the volatile monologue going until you back down or run away.
I remember watching Cheaper by the Dozen with a group. After the movie, I said that I hoped I never had that many children and was immediately accused of planning abortions for a pregnancy that didn't exist. True story. After expressing my fears to a priest (who is pro-life), he told me that these types of people terrified him, too, and to just "Wait a few days and then just tell them what they want to hear" so that they didn't give me any trouble. I read a comment on a video where women were criticized as being bad mothers if they weren't willing to die from a pregnancy. That is how heated this issue is. There are four groups: pro-choice, undeclared, pro-life and them. This is my first-hand experience, not some assumption based on the experiences of others.
And politicians know this issue is a trigger, that is why they keep pulling it. But the deal is sweet for them no matter what happens. When the laws are beaten down at the SCOTUS level, they can say, "Hey, we tried, but those baby killers stopped us. Remember that and vote for me!" Wash, rinse, repeat. As I said earlier, the objective of any politician is to be reelected, and this set of voters is very easy to stir up and impossible to sway.
True, there may be one or two politicians that actually believe in what they are pushing, and some are undoubtedly bandwagoning, but surely they are familiar enough with how this country's legal system works to know that their law will fail at the SCOTUS level. And that's the idea, isn't it? To placate far right voters enough to get them to the polls, and then let SCOTUS knock the laws down. Major players in the GOP have been promising to overturn Roe v. Wade for years and never done so. Why? Because they don't have that authority, and even if they did, why would they? All they have to do is just say the word "abortion" and their base is fired up. If abortion was illegal in this country, their greatest pitch would be lost. At the end of the day, the objective of any politician--Democrat or Republican--is to be reelected.
A backlash is on the horizon from all these laws, and I'm sure the legislators pushing these laws know exactly what they are doing. They know their followers will never accept that the system of Checks and Balances cannot be overturned in Congress or by electing a new president. If you don't believe me, find a hardcore pro-lifer and just ask them. I personally don't think of them as pro-life, they are something else entirely. One too many experiences with the highly hostile natures of people I've met from this demographic have been a life lesson. Even what appears to be simple conversation on non-related topics goes from "Hey, this person is nice" to "I hope my pepper spray is in my purse because this person is scaring the hell out of me."
An answer I gave to someone's commentary that I honestly thought was harmless about how my voting decisions would not affect Roe v Wade because of how the country was set up went from civil to frightening in seconds. A completely illogical and frightening tirade was written to me. He was offended by my civics lesson and the next thing I knew, I got an email with abortion "info" that was 30 years old and possessed not one verifiable source. Just from mentioning Checks and Balances. He was the one that brought up abortion. That wasn't even on my mind. My motivation for voting was the economy, and if people like him weren't so trigger-happy and clung so tightly to erroneous information, they would see that abortion rates drop when they economy is good. So someone that is thinking about the economy isn't "the enemy". But nothing will even get them to change the topic. No research is valid to them unless it comes from the unvalidated website that tells them exactly what they want to hear. You either are a monster or in need of reeducation in their eyes. They will keep talking as if you didn't say a word and will keep the volatile monologue going until you back down or run away.
I remember watching Cheaper by the Dozen with a group. After the movie, I said that I hoped I never had that many children and was immediately accused of planning abortions for a pregnancy that didn't exist. True story. After expressing my fears to a priest (who is pro-life), he told me that these types of people terrified him, too, and to just "Wait a few days and then just tell them what they want to hear" so that they didn't give me any trouble. I read a comment on a video where women were criticized as being bad mothers if they weren't willing to die from a pregnancy. That is how heated this issue is. There are four groups: pro-choice, undeclared, pro-life and them. This is my first-hand experience, not some assumption based on the experiences of others.
And politicians know this issue is a trigger, that is why they keep pulling it. But the deal is sweet for them no matter what happens. When the laws are beaten down at the SCOTUS level, they can say, "Hey, we tried, but those baby killers stopped us. Remember that and vote for me!" Wash, rinse, repeat. As I said earlier, the objective of any politician is to be reelected, and this set of voters is very easy to stir up and impossible to sway.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
...and Mississipi?
Romney came in third behind Gingrich and Santorum, effectively guaranteeing a battle for delegates all the way to the Republican convention and making a certain president very, very happy. Somebody's in trouble...
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Surprise! Surprise! Santorum takes Alabama
NBC, CNN and Fox News are calling Alabama for Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum. Mississippi, caught in a three-way split, is still being marked as too close to call.
Santorum took 34% of the Alabama vote, seizing 13 delegates with 58% of the vote calculated. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich coming in second with 30%, Mitt Romney came in third with 28% of the vote and Ron Paul trailed with 8% of the voted.
So what does this mean? It means the Republicans still have a serious problem on their hands. Mitt Romney failed miserably at his attempt to appear like a regular guy with some painful attempts at Southern jargon this morning. Romney couldn't even beat Gingrich. But this should not really be a surprise, given that Alabama and Mississippi are tagged as being the most evangelical and conservative voters in the country. Romney is just coming off as being too country club to appeal to Joe Blow America. Republican voters are still iffy about Romney, despite the fact that he may be as good as they are going to get. However, Santorum does not have a snow's chance of catering to the moderates in a general election. Gingrich has enough baggage to take him to Saturn and back. Poor Ron Paul is just in denial.
President Obama has slipped drastically in popularity, but this three-way split may very well be his saving grace. Even with the divide being so clear and a projected frontrunner for the Republican Party being so ambiguous, the conservative vote may still steadily stream towards whomever is picked. But my eyes and ears hear conservative voters with ultimatums: "our" guy or the highway.
Whatever the case, the battleground for the general election is moderates and women voters, and superconservatives are rapidly losing appeal with those populations.
Santorum took 34% of the Alabama vote, seizing 13 delegates with 58% of the vote calculated. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich coming in second with 30%, Mitt Romney came in third with 28% of the vote and Ron Paul trailed with 8% of the voted.
So what does this mean? It means the Republicans still have a serious problem on their hands. Mitt Romney failed miserably at his attempt to appear like a regular guy with some painful attempts at Southern jargon this morning. Romney couldn't even beat Gingrich. But this should not really be a surprise, given that Alabama and Mississippi are tagged as being the most evangelical and conservative voters in the country. Romney is just coming off as being too country club to appeal to Joe Blow America. Republican voters are still iffy about Romney, despite the fact that he may be as good as they are going to get. However, Santorum does not have a snow's chance of catering to the moderates in a general election. Gingrich has enough baggage to take him to Saturn and back. Poor Ron Paul is just in denial.
President Obama has slipped drastically in popularity, but this three-way split may very well be his saving grace. Even with the divide being so clear and a projected frontrunner for the Republican Party being so ambiguous, the conservative vote may still steadily stream towards whomever is picked. But my eyes and ears hear conservative voters with ultimatums: "our" guy or the highway.
Whatever the case, the battleground for the general election is moderates and women voters, and superconservatives are rapidly losing appeal with those populations.
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