In all the panic over Iran becoming a nuclear power, one question has gone unasked: what are the odds that they will actually use the weapon? True, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made statements that warrant concern over his level of competence, but we have been through this Armageddon scenario before. Iran just showed why a country would want to have WMDs: nuclear powers are taken far more seriously by global powerhouses such as, well...the United States. And let's face it - the Middle East is not going to be swimming in oil forever; their last ace is on the table. Aside from oil, does the Middle East really have any high-demand commodities to keep their existence above radar?
The fact is if Ahmadinejad nuked anyone, he would have the favor returned. Unless he is proven to be a true psychopath, all we are doing now is giving him free press.
2 comments:
Good post Sheri
We both seem to have done an Iran piece though from different perspectives.
The Iranian President seems to have a messianic approach to life and ruling his people. There is a risk that he may only be "proven to be a true psychopath" after Iran has nuclear weapons.
On retaliation in kind - if he uses the weapons on Iran's old enemy Iraq or on Syria there may not be any other country interested in settling the score with nuclear weapons.
Given that Iran has been into nuclear development for more than 25 years its strange that everyone jumping up and down now. Something to do with Bush creating a diversion for his Iraq withdrawal possibly.
But anyway Iran seems too "twitchy" to be let into the nuclear club. Even if it wants to exert power after the oil runs out.
Pete
I think like Bush that Iran's President plays to the fears of his people.
I look for the West to take the southern oil fields. The terrain is relatively easy to maneuver on and it would not take much fire power to take it. To keep it is another question.
Of course in rebuilding what we destroy and the occupation will be very fruitful for the Bush Regime.
Look for the further demonizing of the Iranian Government in the US press 1st.
After decades of being slaves by proxy to the West the Iranians will not succomb to Western pressure. The Bear to the north has seemingly chosen sides and I think that might put an end to it. I hope.
Unless the Armageddonists(both Hebrewlike and Christianlike) do something like ah destroy the Al Asqa Mosque Complex. Which if these end time dreamers Prophecies are to hold true must come down this year.
Peace. I hope.
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